The COVID-19 antigen self-test kit out of stock in China, key raw materials may restrict the expansion of production capacity

The data shows that the current average daily sales volume of self-test boxes has increased by more than 400 times compared with November.

With the optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention policies in various places, the purchase of COVID-19 antigen detection kits has become the focus of attention of all parties.

To guide those in need to independently and standardize the detection of the COVID-19 coronavirus antigen, the Comprehensive Team of the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council announced the "New Coronavirus Antigen Detection Application Plan" (hereinafter referred to as the "Application Plan") on December 8. This application scheme is suitable for people who need independent antigen detection; people in densely populated places such as large enterprises, construction sites, and universities; and elderly people in homes and nursing homes.

Under the optimization and adjustment of policies, people's demand for antigen detection kits has soared, and multiple e-commerce platforms have shown that the sales of antigen detection kits have surged. Among them, Jingdong Health data shows that the turnover of antigen detection kits from November 28 to December 4 increased by 344% from the previous week. According to the data of Dingdang Kuaiyao, in late November, the weekly orders for antigen kits in Dingdang Kuaiyao increased by more than 8 times compared with the weekly orders in the first ten days of the month.

Short supply, slow delivery

In addition, the "Application Plan" also makes it clear that all personnel can perform self-antigen testing at any time in accordance with the principle of autonomy and voluntariness. If the antigen test is positive, the independent antigen test personnel will report the positive result of the antigen test to the local primary medical and health institution. Those who need independent antigen detection can purchase antigen detection reagents through retail pharmacies, online sales platforms, and other channels for self-testing. The frequency of testing can be tested at any time according to voluntary will.

The increase in sales in a short period of time has also brought about the problem of insufficient supply. On December 9, in Beijing, the COVID-19 antigen detection kits are currently out of stock. Some pharmacies said they would replenish them next week, and some pharmacies said that the replenishment time was unknown.

Manufacturers adjust production capacity, raw materials may become a bottleneck

With such a market size, the expansion of production capacity may become an important issue. Kuang Jie, a researcher at the Economic and Financial Research Center of the School of Marxism at Tsinghua University, once analyzed that the domestic demand for antigen detection kits should not be less than tens of billions per year. Considering domestic demand and export demand, a rough estimate shows that the production capacity needs to reach or close to 100 million servings per day, to fully meet the needs of all aspects. However, the improvement of production capacity still needs all kinds of conditions to be in place. In addition to funds, equipment, workshops, and personnel, the most important thing is the stable supply of raw materials.